Uruguay vs Spain Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
Spain are predicted to beat Uruguay in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 87% model win probability and a projected 1–2 scoreline.
Last updated 7 Jul 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Based on FIFA rankings, recent form, and head-to-head data
How this prediction is calculated
This Uruguay vs Spain forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Uruguay #18, Spain #1) with an adjustment for home advantage. Spain is modelled as the more likely winner (87%), with a projected scoreline of 1–2. Draw probability is 12%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Uruguay vs Spain — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Uruguay vs Spain?
Spain are predicted to win, with a 87% model win probability against Uruguay, and a 12% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Uruguay #18, Spain #1) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Spain?
Our model projects a 1–2 scoreline in Spain's favour, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Uruguay vs Spain?
Uruguay 1% win, draw 12%, Spain 87% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Uruguay vs Spain prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Uruguay #18, Spain #1) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Uruguay vs Spain being played?
Uruguay face Spain on Saturday, 27 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.