Turkey vs United States Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
United States are predicted to beat Turkey in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 57% model win probability and a projected 0–1 scoreline.
Last updated 13 Sept 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Poisson scoreline model — FIFA ranking, recent form & head-to-head where available
How this prediction is calculated
This Turkey vs United States forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Turkey #30, United States #11) with an adjustment for home advantage. United States was modelled as the more likely winner (57%), with a projected scoreline of 0–1. Draw probability is 22%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Turkey vs United States — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Turkey vs United States?
United States are predicted to win, with a 57% model win probability against Turkey, and a 22% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Turkey #30, United States #11) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Turkey vs United States?
Our model projects a 0–1 scoreline in United States's favour, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Turkey vs United States?
Turkey 21% win, draw 22%, United States 57% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Turkey vs United States prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Turkey #30, United States #11) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Turkey vs United States being played?
Turkey face United States on Friday, 26 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.