Tunisia vs Japan Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
Japan are predicted to beat Tunisia in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 53% model win probability and a projected 0–1 scoreline.
Last updated 13 Sept 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Poisson scoreline model — FIFA ranking, recent form & head-to-head where available
How this prediction is calculated
This Tunisia vs Japan forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Tunisia #34, Japan #15) with an adjustment for home advantage. Japan was modelled as the more likely winner (53%), with a projected scoreline of 0–1. Draw probability is 23%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Tunisia vs Japan — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Tunisia vs Japan?
Japan are predicted to win, with a 53% model win probability against Tunisia, and a 23% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Tunisia #34, Japan #15) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Japan?
Our model projects a 0–1 scoreline in Japan's favour, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Tunisia vs Japan?
Tunisia 24% win, draw 23%, Japan 53% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Tunisia vs Japan prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Tunisia #34, Japan #15) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Tunisia vs Japan being played?
Tunisia face Japan on Sunday, 21 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.