Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
Senegal are predicted to beat Iraq in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 68% model win probability and a projected 1–0 scoreline.
Last updated 13 Sept 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Poisson scoreline model — FIFA ranking, recent form & head-to-head where available
How this prediction is calculated
This Senegal vs Iraq forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Senegal #19, Iraq #63) with an adjustment for home advantage. Senegal was modelled as the more likely winner (68%), with a projected scoreline of 1–0. Draw probability is 19%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Senegal vs Iraq — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Senegal vs Iraq?
Senegal are predicted to win, with a 68% model win probability against Iraq, and a 19% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Senegal #19, Iraq #63) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Senegal vs Iraq?
Our model projects a 1–0 scoreline, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Senegal vs Iraq?
Senegal 68% win, draw 19%, Iraq 13% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Senegal vs Iraq prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Senegal #19, Iraq #63) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Senegal vs Iraq being played?
Senegal face Iraq on Friday, 26 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.