Norway vs Senegal Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
Senegal are predicted to beat Norway in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 41% model win probability and a projected 1–1 scoreline.
Last updated 13 Sept 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Poisson scoreline model — FIFA ranking, recent form & head-to-head where available
How this prediction is calculated
This Norway vs Senegal forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Norway #28, Senegal #19) with an adjustment for home advantage. Senegal was modelled as the more likely winner (41%), with a projected scoreline of 1–1. Draw probability is 24%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Norway vs Senegal — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Norway vs Senegal?
Senegal are predicted to win, with a 41% model win probability against Norway, and a 24% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Norway #28, Senegal #19) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Norway vs Senegal?
Our model projects a 1–1 scoreline in Senegal's favour, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Norway vs Senegal?
Norway 35% win, draw 24%, Senegal 41% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Norway vs Senegal prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Norway #28, Senegal #19) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Norway vs Senegal being played?
Norway face Senegal on Tuesday, 23 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.