Mexico vs South Africa Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
Mexico are predicted to beat South Africa in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 68% model win probability and a projected 1–0 scoreline.
Last updated 13 Sept 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Poisson scoreline model — FIFA ranking, recent form & head-to-head where available
How this prediction is calculated
This Mexico vs South Africa forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Mexico #16, South Africa #58) with an adjustment for home advantage. Mexico was modelled as the more likely winner (68%), with a projected scoreline of 1–0. Draw probability is 19%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Mexico vs South Africa — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Mexico vs South Africa?
Mexico are predicted to win, with a 68% model win probability against South Africa, and a 19% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Mexico #16, South Africa #58) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs South Africa?
Our model projects a 1–0 scoreline, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Mexico vs South Africa?
Mexico 68% win, draw 19%, South Africa 13% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Mexico vs South Africa prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Mexico #16, South Africa #58) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Mexico vs South Africa being played?
Mexico face South Africa on Thursday, 11 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.