Japan vs Sweden Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
Japan are predicted to beat Sweden in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 59% model win probability and a projected 1–0 scoreline.
Last updated 13 Sept 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Poisson scoreline model — FIFA ranking, recent form & head-to-head where available
How this prediction is calculated
This Japan vs Sweden forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Japan #15, Sweden #26) with an adjustment for home advantage. Japan was modelled as the more likely winner (59%), with a projected scoreline of 1–0. Draw probability is 22%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Japan vs Sweden — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Japan vs Sweden?
Japan are predicted to win, with a 59% model win probability against Sweden, and a 22% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Japan #15, Sweden #26) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Japan vs Sweden?
Our model projects a 1–0 scoreline, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Japan vs Sweden?
Japan 59% win, draw 22%, Sweden 19% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Japan vs Sweden prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Japan #15, Sweden #26) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Japan vs Sweden being played?
Japan face Sweden on Thursday, 25 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.