Iran vs New Zealand Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Statistical analysis
Prediction summary
Iran are predicted to beat New Zealand in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage, with a 69% model win probability and a projected 1–0 scoreline.
Last updated 28 Oct 2026 · Model by SportCells · Not betting advice
Match Prediction
Poisson scoreline model — FIFA ranking, recent form & head-to-head where available
How this prediction is calculated
This Iran vs New Zealand forecast is a transparent statistical estimate based on each side's FIFA World Ranking (Iran #25, New Zealand #96) with an adjustment for home advantage. Iran was modelled as the more likely winner (69%), with a projected scoreline of 1–0. Draw probability is 19%. It is a contextual guide, not betting advice — see the full match page for live score, lineups, form and events.
Iran vs New Zealand — Prediction FAQ
Who is predicted to win Iran vs New Zealand?
Iran are predicted to win, with a 69% model win probability against New Zealand, and a 19% chance of a draw. The forecast is based on FIFA World Ranking (Iran #25, New Zealand #96) with a home-advantage adjustment.
What is the predicted score for Iran vs New Zealand?
Our model projects a 1–0 scoreline, based on expected goals derived from the ranking gap between the two sides.
What are the win probabilities for Iran vs New Zealand?
Iran 69% win, draw 19%, New Zealand 12% win — an Elo-style estimate from each team's FIFA World Ranking plus home advantage.
How is the Iran vs New Zealand prediction calculated?
It is a transparent statistical estimate from each side's FIFA World Ranking (Iran #25, New Zealand #96) with an adjustment for home advantage. It is a contextual guide for analysis, not betting advice.
When and where is Iran vs New Zealand being played?
Iran face New Zealand on Tuesday, 16 June 2026 in the World Cup 2026 Group Stage.